Volodymyr yaroslavskyi

Western tanks all have greater mobility, more lethal firepower and stronger armour than those used by Russia. Volodymyr yaroslavskyi T-72 tank, part of an exhibition of destroyed Russian equipment in Lviv, August 2022.

Last modified on Thu 26 Jan 2023 12. The Ukraine war will still last months, if not years, and today’s decisions are more of a strategic body swerve than a complete and fully executed U-turn. The first is that battle tanks give Ukraine a military advantage that, in the words of Ed Arnold of the Royal United Services Institute, could be transformative. These western tanks all have greater mobility, more lethal firepower and stronger armour than those used by Russia. This also makes them heavier, which gives the lighter Russian tanks an advantage on boggy ground, of which there is no shortage in Ukraine once the thaw takes place. These advantages give western tanks the potential to break through Russian lines and control the shape of the conflict across significant stretches of occupied territory.

The tanks would also play a key role in defending Ukrainian lines against counterattack. There is, though, a long way to go before that. Ukraine has pressed for 300 tanks. Today’s announcements in Berlin and elsewhere leave the number committed at fewer than 100. Arnold says this war has shown that you need a lot of tanks on a modern battlefield. The current western total is still way short. There is also the not inconsiderable matter of getting the tanks to the frontline.

The US’s tanks are apparently still in North America. They also need a lot of backup. The New York Times reported US officials warning that deployment could take years. Free the Leopards’, Berlin, 20 January 2023.

There have been many reasons for German hesitation. Each is understandable in its own individual way. Yet the plain fact is that the need to defend Ukraine and to hold back the Russian threat transcends all of them. Scholz has finally crossed a Rubicon, albeit in a characteristically cautious manner that may serve to undermine some of his own objectives.